- Stacy Straczynski

The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index, which attempts to track
consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending,
rose to 2.15 percent in July. This was steered by falling
unemployment claims and tax burdens, along with a rise in real
wages.
"The uptick in the Index may give retailers and their suppliers a
reason for cautious optimism going forward, said Carl Steidtmann,
chief economist with Deloitte research, in a statement.
Real wages increased by 4.5 percent, up from relatively flat
numbers experienced from May to June. The uptick largely correlated
with continued deflation and falling prices.
Unemployment claims decreased for the fourth consecutive month. The
sharp decline has been noted as a past indicator of economic
recovery. Tax burdens also declined, following a distribution of
tax rebates. Tax burdens are expected to continue in a downward
trend for the next few months.
Real home price was the only factor that did not contribute to the
upturn. Home values continued their year-over-year decline, despite
lower prices and interest rates in June. However, the rate of
decline has slowed. Government action to prevent additional
foreclosures and offer tax credits as incentives to homebuyers
helped to stall the drop, per the report.
Overall, the increases show that consumers do have the means to
spend, according to a statement by Stacy Janiak, vice chairman and
U.S. retail leader for Deloitte.
A similar increase in consumer confidence could lead to further
spending in the coming months, which is long-awaited news for
retailers, Janiak said.
"Retailers should be strategizing to more quickly adapt to changes
in consumer buying patterns. In particular, use of advanced
analytics to manage inventories and create pricing and promotion
scenario plans could be an important catalyst in capturing greater
market share and improving profitability this holiday season," she
said.
July Consumer Spending Rose to 2.15%
Aug 11, 2009
- Stacy Straczynski

The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index, which attempts to track consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending, rose to 2.15 percent in July. This was steered by falling unemployment claims and tax burdens, along with a rise in real wages.
"The uptick in the Index may give retailers and their suppliers a reason for cautious optimism going forward, said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist with Deloitte research, in a statement.
Real wages increased by 4.5 percent, up from relatively flat numbers experienced from May to June. The uptick largely correlated with continued deflation and falling prices.
Unemployment claims decreased for the fourth consecutive month. The sharp decline has been noted as a past indicator of economic recovery. Tax burdens also declined, following a distribution of tax rebates. Tax burdens are expected to continue in a downward trend for the next few months.
Real home price was the only factor that did not contribute to the upturn. Home values continued their year-over-year decline, despite lower prices and interest rates in June. However, the rate of decline has slowed. Government action to prevent additional foreclosures and offer tax credits as incentives to homebuyers helped to stall the drop, per the report.
Overall, the increases show that consumers do have the means to spend, according to a statement by Stacy Janiak, vice chairman and U.S. retail leader for Deloitte.
A similar increase in consumer confidence could lead to further spending in the coming months, which is long-awaited news for retailers, Janiak said.
"Retailers should be strategizing to more quickly adapt to changes in consumer buying patterns. In particular, use of advanced analytics to manage inventories and create pricing and promotion scenario plans could be an important catalyst in capturing greater market share and improving profitability this holiday season," she said.